A pioneer colony of as few as 22 individuals could last long enough to establish a human presence on Mars.
That is the finding of a recent study by a group of scientists in the US that calculated the necessary starting population for a Mars colony to succeed and flourish.
If there are any fewer, your colony can fail and end up like Lord of the Flies, or worse.
This estimate is much lower than the prior one of 110 persons. Perhaps the more the merrier, even though the cost of a voyage to the Red Planet would soar with each additional mouth to feed.
But it’s not simply the population that matters. The scientists discovered that in order for the model Mars colony to function well over an extended period of time in such a remote location, the appropriate combination of personality types is required.
These results were described in an article that was posted to the preprint server arXiv but has not yet undergone peer review.
Beyond extracting some essential minerals and water, the researchers write, “the colonizers will be dependent on Earth resupply and replenishment of necessities via technological means, i.e., splitting Martian water into oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for fuel.”
Future colonists will encounter difficulties with psychology and human behavior in addition to technical and mechanical issues. Through the use of simulation using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), we want to gain a better understanding of how future Martian colonists will interact behaviorally and psychologically.
The technique of agent-based modeling is typically applied to economic or health-related studies. They are essentially computer simulations created to research how autonomous decision-making ‘agents’ interact with one another in a system. The system can also cover things like locations, time, and items even though it is typically focused on people.
The group used four personality types in their modeling:
- Agreeables, with low competitiveness, low aggression, and low fixation on routine
- Socials, who are moderately competitive, competitive in social interactions, and require social interaction, but also have low routine fixation
- Reactives, who are moderately competitive, competitive in social interaction and fixated on routine
- Neurotics, who are highly competitive, aggressive socially, highly fixated on routine, and have trouble with boredom.
Additionally, each agent was given skills from the management and engineering areas. The availability of resources, interpersonal relationships, and task pairings were among the additional aspects that were taken into account.
To further grasp the difficulties and pressures, the researchers researched human expeditions into high-stress, remote settings, including Antarctica, submarines, and the International Space Station.
The scientists ran its model five times over a 28-year period, changing the population size in increments of ten persons from ten to one hundred and seventy, and later trying even lower initial populations.
A population of 10 was determined to be the absolute bare minimum for a stable colony since there are four crucial jobs that must be continuously completed, including the creation of air, water, and food as well as the removal of waste and accident recovery. Each starter set contained the same quantity of each personality type.
After 28 years, 22 persons were the bare minimum starting population that could support a population greater than 10. However, personality type was quite important.
According to the researchers, “In all runs, the Agreeable personality type was the only one to survive the full duration of model runs.”
This is probably because it has the best capacity for coping, and over extended periods of time, every agent has been subjected to a variety of stressor interactions as well as mishaps in space and on habitats.
However, it should come as no surprise that neurotic personality types are a liability in the simulation. The research team discovered that neurotics are responsible for the declining Martian population. They pass away far more frequently than other personality types, and the remainder of the population cannot settle until neurotic personalities have declined to a sufficiently low level.
The good news is that NASA already chooses astronauts only after a thorough vetting procedure that includes personality assessments.
However, the study demonstrates how crucial it might be to take humans into account when planning human mission.
The research appears on preprint server arXiv.
